Gov. Laura Kelly executed an airborne pirouette above the heads of her political opponents Monday, unveiling a bipartisan tax plan and throwing down a challenge to GOP leaders who want nothing more than to pad the wallets of Kansas’ wealthiest through a flat tax.

What the governor said might have mattered less than who was standing in the room with her.

Republican state Sens. John Doll and Rob Olson lent their imprimatur to the effort, along with independent Sen. Dennis Pyle. All three have tangled with GOP leadership at one point or another, and Kelly was more than happy to welcome them into her camp. Senate President Ty Masterson and House Speaker Dan Hawkins, take note: When you antagonize folks from your party, they might find friends on the other side of the aisle.

If those three join Senate Democrats in opposing a flat tax, it can’t pass. Republican leaders won’t be able to override Kelly’s veto.

“Let me be clear, the flat tax is a nonstarter,” the governor told the assembled reporters. “The people who would benefit the most from a flat tax by far are those making $250,000 per year or more. There is no evidence to suggest a flat tax does anything to drive growth.”

A tax bill could emerge from the Statehouse this session. But the press conference makes clear that Republicans will have to bargain with Kelly and her three senator friends. As if to underscore the point, all four contributed a joint op-ed to the Kansas City Star under the headline: “‘Flat tax’ leaves out regular Kansans. Our bipartisan plan gives real tax relief.”

The grinding noises you hear right now are Masterson’s and Hawkins’ teeth.

What’s fair and for who

Kansas Reflector reporter Rachel Mipro caught up with Olson on Monday, as senators and representatives gathered to begin the session and a snowstorm bore down on Northeastern Kansas.

You might recall that Olson faced consequences last session after opposing a flat tax. Masterson stripped him of the Senate Utilities Committee chairmanship, grumbling that “his services are no longer required.”

The Olathe Republican sounded almost liberated.

“It’s time to get something done for Kansans, not special interests,” he told Mipro. “There’s so much lobbying power in this building. It represents business and big donors. … But what about the taxpayers that are overburdened and overtaxed from the property tax to their income tax.”

Olson took a wide view, emphasizing how tax policy also affects those at the bottom of the socioeconomic ladder, not just those at the top. As I often said during my time in the nonprofit world — working on these very issues — tax policy shows what we value.

“We’ve got a lot of Kansans struggling,” the senator said. “Buying a house or buying a car, or paying rent or whatever. I mean, I go downtown here  in Topeka, I see more homeless people than I’ve ever seen. And there’s more people struggling as costs are going up just to pay for their food. And I can’t leave the people at the bottom out.”

As it happens, a report from a major national organization dropped Tuesday to amplify just these points.

The nonprofit Institute on Taxation and Economic Policy, based in Washington, D.C., issued its annual “Who Pays?” study, breaking down tax burdens state by state. These four bullet points about the Kansas tax system caught my end:

What’s next and why

The tax tussling unnerves me a bit.

The Legislature only overturned former Gov. Sam Brownback’s cataclysmic tax “experiment” a scant seven years ago. And while our state should boast nearly $3 billion in reserves by the end of this fiscal year, changes to the tax system have a way of compounding over time. Add in required (but neglected) spending throughout the state, and that pillowy cushion might look seriously flat within a year or two.

Former Kansas Senate President Steve Morris, now with the educational group Kansans First, made that point himself.

“Kansas are rightly wary of ambitious, sweeping income tax reform,” he said in a statement. “In the past, we’ve been promised a ‘shot of adrenalin’ for our economy but saw when the dust settled that it was in reality a sucker punch for our rural communities.”

He praised the current bipartisan plan and added: “Our lawmakers can find real solutions when they set aside partisanship and opportunism. We look forward to seeing what lawmakers deliver for Kansans this season.”

State leaders need to be both smart and careful this session.

Kelly has proved, time and again, that she can outclass and outmaneuver her Republican opponents. She can apparently block a flat tax, but that doesn’t mean she can pass her favored legislation.

At some point this session, she and legislative leaders will have to sit down and deal. All of those at the table will have to weighs the benefits and drawbacks. If Kelly makes her peace with some type of flat tax, could she dislodge a Medicaid expansion vote in return? If Masterson and Hawkins tweak their proposal and offer an additional sweetener (say, full special education funding), could they gain their own bipartisan backing?

Whatever the case, keep an eye on the governor. When you least expect it, she’ll pull out another advanced gymnastics move and twirl past her foes in the blink of an eye.

Clay Wirestone is Kansas Reflector opinion editor. Through its opinion section, Kansas Reflector works to amplify the voices of people who are affected by public policies or excluded from public debate. Find information, including how to submit your own commentary, here.